jamesnixon.com
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WILL THE DREAMLINER EVER FLY?
The Boeing 787 is delayed again. Some people are predicting it’ll fly on the 22nd December.
But which year?
It’s my opinion that they have chosen the wrong strategy, believing in “more flights, more often” ... where passengers travel point-to-point.
It is, after all, only a plastic 767 with sexy wing tips.
But in a world where oil is never going to below $80 a barrel, ( that’s what the Saudis need it to be), and indeed where supplies are running out; I believe that point to point can’t work. The public won’t stand for it.
I think Airbus’ model, where bigger planes fly to hubs, will win out in the end.
Take Air Malta. They have two slots a day into London Heathrow. They are never going to get more slots. There aren’t enough hours in the day.
They started with BAE 146s, then 737s, then A320s as their passenger numbers increased.
One day they’ll need A380s to meet passenger requirements ... and they’ll fit them all into the two slots a day.
I haven’t even addressed the problems Boeing are having with suppliers from all over the world ... but they are enormous. The ex 787 Project Manager said that Boeing will never ever build an airline like this again.
And if you think I’m being overly pessimistic, just cast your mind back to the biggest billboard in Australia at Sydney Airport.
It used to have a picture of Boeing’s Super Sonic Transport ... Sydney to LA in a flash.
Can you tell me where to get a ticket on that Dreamliner? Oh, that’s right, you can’t. It was never built.
What they need is to forget the 747-800 and go for a full upper deck stretch. Call it the 747-999 and get on with it.
17th November 2009
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