Editorials

THE FUTURE

15/04/21 23:21 Filed in: Aviation | Australia
I am very optimistic about the airline industry's future. Many airlines have used the crisis to reduce staff sizes, optimise dud routes / frequencies and totally reorganise their businesses etc.
They do every time. But this time they are even smarter, and starting from a smarter base, having embraced leasing and outsourcing since the GFC. 
When the crisis began none talked about airlines closures, just job losses. That gave me hope. When a company like BA quickly announces a reduction of 6,000 staff, they aren’t planning on closing the doors.
It was very different to 911, when over 20 airlines went broke. They didn’t talk about people, they talked about airlines that were no longer: Ansett, Sabena, Swissair … icons just vanished all over the world.
In April last year 65% of the world’s airliners were grounded, by August 65% were flying. Now it’s 70%. (And it makes you wonder if the 30% that are parked owe them too much, are inefficient, old, or, like the A380, are unsuited to current needs)
IATA had quickly predicted passenger demand would be down 48% for 2020. So the smart managers started sharpening their pencils.
Cargo quickly took off and saved many balance sheets. Soon Emirates had over 60 B777s running around as freighters.
Year-on-year in February, world cargo available tonnes fell by 14.9% … but cargo tonne kilometres were up by 9%. Signs of (efficient) life. And remember, Cargo is always the first to go down in our business, and first to come back.
One large airline kept their staff and fleet grounded, and just bought cargo space on other carriers. Talk about efficiency.
In Australia, we have the idea that the business is closed, but not overseas.
Airline Ratings quoted an IATA report in October that 1.2 billion passengers had travelled since the start of 2020, with only 44 inflight covid transmissions … and that was in a world before inflight mask-wearing became the norm.
The industry will come back, and faster than you think.
Many older flight crew —survivors of 911, the GFC, SARS, Bird Flu, Ebola, and MERS— who have been let go or furloughed, have decided to give it away. Time to retire.
The forecast pilot shortage of 2019 has been pushed back, but it’s still coming. We’ll be reading about it in 2024.
Covid, and the next one, will still be with us.
The vaccines will make a difference, but they don’t stop you from catching it… they just stop you from dying from it.
Malaria kills 500,000 every year, Flu, Chikungunya, Dengue, Yellow Fever, Swine Flu, Nile all seriously ruin peoples’ lives, but none stop us from flying.
Humans think they are invincible and are addicted to air travel. Armed with a vaccine against Covid, they will line up to get on planes as soon as they are allowed.
When that first cold snap hits Melbourne in May the annual pilgrimage to warmer climates will begin again.
'Lake Como again, Darling?'
Italy added 16,000 to its half a million active cases yesterday. Do you really want to go there?
Mr.Joyce, I’d be cranking up a couple of A380s and getting Flight Department to run the numbers on flying them to the Gold Coast, and Queenstown.


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[ This was written following a request from LinkedIN]



Hi James, I'm a LinkedIn News editor. We often reach out to LinkedIn members who can add an informed perspective on today’s news and trends.

There’s positive news from Australia’s aviation industry with Qantas and Virgin Australia announcing staff are heading back to work. Extra flights are being planned to cater for booming domestic demand fuelled in part by the government’s half-price ticket scheme.

We'd love to hear from you. Do you think Australia’s airline industry is on track to recover, starting with domestic travel?

Share your insights in a comment on this post where you’ll find other members weighing in.

Thanks, and I look forward to reading your response.


News Editor

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